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The U.S. sanctions on Iran are not biting yet, as global oil markets are well supplied. In the coming weeks, Iranian crude volumes should show a decline. At the same time, the success of Trump’s sanctions relies for a large part on the compliance of international buyers and the position taken by leading OPEC members. The three leading NOPEC countries have indicated that they are able and willing to open their taps to supply for possible gaps in volumes worldwide. Combined with increased U.S. production, this should dampen price increases. Stability is key for most it seems, but that may not always be the case.

The last three weeks Saudi Arabia’s future has been questioned by all. The unexpected but dramatic outfall of the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, Turkey, by Saudi security services has rocked the power structures of the Kingdom, threatening to bring down Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Western media and politicians have been stumbling over each other trying to present a unified political pressure on the Saudi King to consider the removal of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Oil markets could be heading for a possible showdown this week, as U.S. sanctions on Iran will be implemented fully, OPEC+ producers have opened the valves and the global economy is showing some cracks.

British spy-novel writers John LeCarre and Ian Fleming would have been flabbergasted these days, looking at the developing story surrounding the disappearance of Saudi dissident journalist Khashoggi. The current story-line, showing a possible involvement of Saudi security services, the Royal Court and possibly even reformist Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is however not looking anymore something like James Bond’s Skyfall, but more an intricate new novel by Tom Clancy, the US spy novel giant known for his character Jack Ryan.

The Aramco IPO saga continues, with the Saudi oil giant soon to enter the international financial markets for a $50 billion loan. International sources are reporting that the world’s largest oil company will look for around $50 billion from international banks, largely to be used to finance a majority stake in Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC).