Article

The full impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran is still to be assessed, as major underlying factors remain opaque.

U.S. president Trump is facing strong internal pressure to punish Saudi Arabia in the coming days. For Washington, however, this could be a double-edged sword, as turning on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could result in two unwanted major geopolitical consequences. The still fresh Jamal Khashoggi murder case continues to make headlines due to a relentless anti-Saudi media and a diplomatic offensive by Turkey, Qatar and Western diplomats, and it could trigger the largest U.S.-Saudi/Arab crisis in decades.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), one of the largest producers within OPEC, is undergoing a dramatic transformation. ADNOC’s CEO has made several statements suggesting that the NOC is set for a more diversified future, in which downstream and natural gas will become a major priority. The NOC aims to not only challenge the leading IOCs such as Shell, Total and ENI, but also compete with the major downstream and gas giants. Until now ADNOC has been heavily focused on oil, as Abu Dhabi’s gas reserves were limited. Last year’s success in setting up operations and production at the Al Hosn field, a giant sour gas field, has helped to change that. New deals presented during ADIPEC 2018, which is still ongoing, further highlight the growing role of natural gas in the country.

OPEC, in cooperation with non-OPEC member Russia, are currently discussing the option to put another production cut in place. During the recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting of OPEC ministers in Abu Dhabi, a consensus was formed between an overwhelming majority of its members that the current oil market situation again substantiates a production cut in 2019.

The multitude of offshore gas discoveries in the East Mediterranean have attracted regional cooperation & economic relations. However, maritime disputes & power projections of the main parties -Turkey, Greece & Cyprus- could lead to military confrontations