OIL PRICE PREDICTION

Accurate quantitative PREDICTIONS

Oil is the most traded commodity! Oil derived products are woven into our society and companies and countries rely on its availability and income.

 In order to better manage the risk and impact of oil prices Verocy offers UNIQUE | One-off or Periodic quantitive  predictions for Brent and WTI oil prices. Accurate forecasts of trends and underlying critical factors. For different horizons with detailed analysis, future scenarios and assessment of impact on trade, assets, investments, portfolios, etc. 

We focus on “what is likely to happen” and enable clients to quantify and assess political, social and financial risks and its implications with key indicators specific to the industries and markets by providing daily, monthly and yearly predictions with high accuracy.

Our prediction model and analysis is also capable of creating latent factors as an early signal of changes in political, social and financial environment and demonstrates phase transitions.

This service is offered in exclusive partnership with NERAI!

OIL PRICES AFFECT GLOBAL MARKETS

OIL & GAS MARKETS
Volatility of oil prices effects investment appetite, revenue based project planning, shareholder value and dividends, divestments and consolidation, IOCs vs NOCs.
ENERGY PRODUCTION
Competition between hydrocarbons and renewables, future strategies investments in hydrocarbon production, fuels and products.
INDUSTRY
Impact on raw materials, feedstocks, transportation & storage costs. Even that oil price elasticity has decreased, and oil/gas volume per product is lower than ever, costs of hydrocarbons still has a major impact on profitability and cost scenarios of industry.
GOVERNMENTS
Oil price volatility directly and indirectly affects government budgets, resulting in budget deficits, instability, or strategic policy changes (oil crisis, financial crisis, energy transition).
ENERGY TRANSITION & CLIMATE CHANGE
Oil prices are an incremental factor in energy transition implementation, as prices enforce new thinking. Low hydrocarbon prices affect negatively energy transition projects, due to lower revenues, increased competition on consumer level.
COMMODITY TRADING
Increased volatility is a major driving factor for commodity trading. Long-short strategies are main instruments to decide overall investment volumes, in which oil price predictions are a main supporting or constraining factor.
TRANSPORT & SHIPPING
Oil prices affect consumer/client demand for fuels. Changes in different spreads will also affect preferences for fuels, products or crude qualities. At same time, price settings affect global trade flows, which has an impact on fuel demands and products in specific regions.
STORAGE & DISTRIBUTION
Oil prices effect not only contango-backwardation in markets, but also results in direct profit margin changes or need for additional long-term storage or throughput strategies.
FINANCE & INVESTMENTS
High price volatility affects investment and risk-taking appetite of financial institutions. Also, US$ and other currencies are depending on the oil price levels. Volatility and major Black Swans may result in lower appetite of financials and major pressure in future on the growth & price strategies.

OIL | THE ULTIMATE RISK COMMODITY

Oil is the ultimate risk commodity and prices are vulnerable to many international factors, like:

  • Fundamentals
  • Economics
  • Geopolitical Events
  • Finance
  • Speculation
  • Technology

The efffects of these factors may contradict or complement one another,

BUT HOW and WHEN?

WHAT WE OFFER

OIL PRICE & UNDERLYING FACTORS

WHAT IS NEXT IN OIL MARKETS?
Oil fluctuations have not only tremendous impact over the stock markets but also have  major influence on the global economy.

HUMAN ENABLED AI FOR ENERGY SECTOR
Verocy offers a comprehensive solution for energy actors in order to act decisive & faster…

COMPREHENSIVE INSIGHTS
Our deep learning algorithms present the oil price prediction with  underlying factors, important countries and the possible developments  that will trigger the fluctuations in the price.

BESPOKE SOLUTIONS
As a true reflection of our ambition to analyze all the aspects comprehensively and provide much  better insights into unfolding of the future, our hybrid understanding resulted in a unique model  for energy sector to see the future in the markets…

ACQUIRE & PROCESS​

  • Curate (global) information from public sources.
  • Natural Language Processing (NLP) to analyze sentiment in 40 languages + dialects.
  • Rank Social, Political and Economical events based on 300+ indicators (Event Indicators) for all countries.
  • Machine & Deep learning algorithms to correlate Event Indicators with Prediction Indicators (i.e. oil price or political risk).
  • Use large datasets to train model and achieve high accuracy.

ANALYZE & PRESENT

  • Machine assisted human intelligence to identify and assess:
    • Dominant Indicators and Countries
    • Dynamics, Trends & Shifts
    • Assess Main Drivers & Impact
  • Present results in interactive data dashboards & bespoke reports.

QUANTITATIVE PREDICTION, UNDERLYING FACTORS & DYNAMICS

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OTHER PREDICTIONS & STRATEGIC FORESIGHT

COMMODITY & ENERGY MARKETS

Commodity and energy markets are greatly affected by economical, geopolitical and social risk factors.

VEROCY and NERAI have developed a service that is able to predict commodity prices and the underlying sentiments on a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or yearly basis.
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FOREIGN INVESTMENT & EMERGING MARKETS

One-off forecasting or periodic monitoring of foreign investment risk and developments in emerging markets!

We accurate predict Economic, Social, Political & Security, Financial, Policy & Regulatory events and help you to assess impact and develop opportunities.
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REGIONS & COUNTRIES

One-off or periodic Region and Country predictions of instability, geodynamics, government events, economic indicators and social change.

Let us know your queries and uncertainties and we will provide you short and long term, quantitative and qualitative, insight and foresight.
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RISK MONITOR & ANALYSIS

SECURITY RISK & GEODYNAMICS

Given the ability of AI to digest complex information, VEROCY applies the latter to further understanding and analyzing geopolitical risk and security. Political and security factors have traditionally been hard to identify and quantify, leading many firms to depend on static or ad-hoc risk consulting reports when making critical business decisions in real-time. With the right AI tools, C-level corporates will now have the instruments to asses and address political exposure, geopolitical risk and security events, to track – predict outcomes that will have a quantitative and qualitative impact on business and investment decisions and the future.
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