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The last weeks media has been filled with a new hype, Saudi Arabia’s solar plans, which were presented by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Japanese SoftBank’s CEO Masayoshi Son in the very early hours on 27th of March in New York, USA. The Saudi Crown Prince could be criticized for some moves but he for sure knows how to put plans into the media. MBS’s dreams of weaning of the Kingdom from its addiction of oil is presented in a very smooth and pro-active way, resulting in a new hype every 3-4 weeks. Now that the dust has again settled, and reality is kicking in, the Saudi solar plans still seem to be very aggressive and based on dreams. At least that is the majority of analysis in the media. As always, good news, aka Saudi Arabia really is stepping up its efforts to enter the energy transition era, looking at new sources of energy while addressing environmental issues, is not of interest it seems for Western media.

The global oil market has gone through several dramatic changes the last years. The success of the US shale strategy, combined with a financial crisis and a global glut of oil and petroleum product storage volumes, has pushed international oil power politics to form different alliances. OPEC’s main oil producer Saudi Arabia, which has been for decades the dominant force in oil, has had to reassess its oil market strategy dramatically, resulting in the widely analyzed OPEC and non-OPEC production cut agreement. The perceived weaker hand of the Kingdom, due to US shale oil volumes and exports, and the need for cooperation with former opponent Russia, is currently on the table.

The Saudi military was hit by a major reshuffle after that King Salman issues several Royal Decrees removing leading military and appointing new blood. Analysts have stated that Saudi Crown Prince and Defense Minister Muhammad bin Salman (known as MBS) has been the main driver for this reshuffle, which fired the joint chiefs of staff of the Saudi military this week. As presented by Saudi official sources, the chairman of the joint chiefs, the army commander, air defense chief, and Royal Saudi Air Force leaders have been replaced. Officially no explanation has been given but it is clear that the current move is part of MBS to reimpose his own alliances and support his power position in the country. Some indications have however also been given that there could have been a slight distrust between MBS and the former military elite on the progress of Saudi military operations in Yemen and Syria, both important for MBS, and a lack of support for Saudi Vision 2030. As one analyst indicated, the military elite was not really believers of MBS’s strategy.

Saudi Arabia is currently looking at a brighter future than before. After years of fledgling hydrocarbon revenues, high subsidies and unemployment, the first signs of a recovery are there. The ongoing oil price rally, showing higher volatility but with an upward potential to hit $70 barrel before the end of 2017, has increased optimism as the government coffins are refilled again. The last years have been hard. According to the World Bank’s most recent listing, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was the world’s 20th largest economy in 2016 with a gross domestic product (GDP) of $646.4 billion. In 2014, the Kingdom’s GDP totaled $756.4 billion. Something had to change, hence major economic restructuring programs, such as NTP2020 and Vision 2030.

The ongoing fight between the London Stock Exchange (LSE), New York (NYSE), Hong Kong and others are for sure not yet out of the running. Saudi officials have been able not to indicate any preference yet, but only keeping their cards close their chest. The last weeks several high-level attempts have been seen by parties to force the hand of Riyadh, without any real success yet.