GEOPOLITICAL & COUNTRY RISK
Assess, address and assist - geopolitical and country risks across multiple markets and regions
Since 2001 the world has been shaken to its core due to increased international instability and fluctuating global economic growth, shocks to the financial system, and a reshuffle of the power balance. Business executives, used to a more stable, and sometimes simple, map of the world, now have to assess and address changes outside of their comfort zone. It has become clear that increased instability has forced business strategists to make geopolitical uncertainty a component in corporate decision making. Business is affected by international and national uncertainty.
Some strategists argue that the current situation is the next step in the transformation of the global business environment. MNCs and SMEs are forced, due to the maturity of Western markets, to expand beyond the confines of the developed world into areas that carry risk far greater than that to which they are accustomed. The current global situation contradicts the dogma of the 1990s which entailed that free market enterprise and a liberal economic agenda would lead to more stable geopolitical relations. The lull in threats, and the decline of interstate warfare during the period 1990-2001 provided a geopolitical environment that enabled heavy consolidation across industries, resulting in the emergence of massive conglomerates with worldwide reach. The economy was paramount; corporations were almost unconstrained by political and social considerations.
The latter is now a threat, as business’s greater international presence and increasing geopolitical complexity have led to a heightened business’s exposure to conflict and violence. Stable geopolitics have led to new global players, which are not accustomed to the present situation. Current MNCs/SMEs have become companies and political actors as well. In a risky global society, to remain a global player today, a firm must be able to survive not only economic downturns, but also geopolitical shocks.
Geopolitical & Country risk is focused on an in-depth understanding of the political, economic, security and operational environment in all countries of the MENA region.
Our assessments and tools include the option to evaluate your external and domestic context, provide forecasts for risks (economic, human, legal, security, military, terrorism, political and theft/laundry/bribes) to increase overall profitability, set up your own risk systems and assessment tools, and conduct foresight scenario planning and impact analysis.
VEROCY, with a vast network of analysts and partners, assess, address and assist with the management of geopolitical risks issues across multiple markets and regions worldwide and provides tailored solutions to help you manage, understand and counter country risk.
The insights are available for the European – Middle East – African markets. With a dedicated team of regional experts, living in these regions, VEROCY will be able to negotiate a suitable policy to cover primary threats and give the hard-needed insights to build up the right background for your operational decisions on the ground
Globalization includes risk for several concrete reasons:
- Governance definition and quality differs widely around the world, such as corruption or expropriation risks.
- Globalization forces companies to deal with empowered nongovernmental actors, which are out of control of the respective governments.
- Technology advances risk as well as control. Greater security measures taken by governments and corporations can provide “point solutions” to harden systems and structures against specific threats, such as cyber attacks. However, cultural and management styles are open for insider risks.
- Geopolitical risk is not limited to globally networked industries. Internationally operating companies are confronted by rising insurance costs and heightened security measures. They are incentives to understand conflicts unfolding around the world.
- Emerging threats also coincide with international transport and trade (Yemen, Strait of Hormuz, Al Qaeda, Somalia).
VEROCY uses the following approach:
- Information gathering and analysis, which is based on a wide-range of in-house information gathering tools and a vast network of analysts and SMEs on the ground in the respective countries in the MENA, Turkish and Sub Saharan Africa.
- Consulting on the respective risks for governments, corporates, financial institutions and operators in the respective theaters.
- Proving bespoke consulting and strategic advisory, with focus on national economic, political and security drivers, impacting the operations of an actor or company.
- Providing (geo-)political country risk analysis on regional, country or actor level.
- Providing country risk analysis and forecasting combining geopolitical and social assessments on a qualitative level with economic-financial analysis and forecasting on a quantitative level. The latter entails in-house econometric analysis with a human behavioral element.
- Providing long-term forecasting scenarios and impact analysis on countries, economic sectors (financial, institutional investors, monetary, energy, defense, infrastructure), and regional or national actors.